Saturday, December 26, 2009

 

Nui – 12th blog

What I’m learning and Compare to my organization

This past week, I get into Earned Value Management part in Humphrey book, Chapter 33 Collecting Actual Cost. So I would like to analyze my organization practice with consideration factor of actual cost collection.

Level of Cost Collection
In my organization, we collect the actual cost at the work package level which is the level that work actually performed and have single assignment to individual. This is provide the visibility advantages to project manager but quite disadvantage in maintenance task for project control or project support team. But I think this is the proper level of detail that we should do because we not only get visibility when monitoring but we also can keep historical record in database for cost estimation development.

Commitment
I’m familiar with this word “Commitment” because it is the term that SAP use in project system. It has the same meaning with this book, “Commitments are orders which have been placed but delivery has not yet occurred, meaning no cost has been booked. Even though money has not been paid, accounting will recognized liability for that amount.” (Cited from Project Management Using Earned Value, Humphrey & Associates, p. 662). And as it is mentioned in the book, this reflects the time lag between order placement and use of material and the figure 33-3 page 662 and 33-4 page 663 provide me the clear picture.

Material Cost
“The most popular points to take earned value credit for material is at the point of receipt, because it is normally the point at which the liability is recognized within the accounting system. This minimizes the impact on accounting, but this convenience should be weighed against the greater utility of crediting earned value at the time of usage. This is the point at which the material has real value to the project.” (Cited from Project Management Using Earned Value, Humphrey & Associates, p. 663).

Compare to my organization, material cost can apply to installation material and software. And the point that we normally use in practical is material receipt as it is the point which we accept material from supplier and will be used at site. I had never thought how this is so important of each point with the earned value methodology. But its explanation is quite clear for me that it should be the point that material will be performed its work. And not just receiving it because it probably returns with damaged, scrapped, or found unacceptable reason. This incorrect point will result in variance analysis.

Accuracy of Report Actual Costs
We just standardize the work package of our service product in this year. This is very good program since we will have the same defined work package and everyone are understandable, as from the book "the precaution should be taken to minimize in correct charges 3. Keep charge codes as simple as possible and 7. Clearly defined what belongs in each account", page 668.

Moreover, it provides project manager and project control easier when monitoring, analysis and keep historical record for, as from the book “the precaution should be taken to minimize in correct 5. Do spot checking and 6. Maintain historical records", page 668.

Merry Chirstmas and Happy New Year!
Wishing You and Your family happy and healthy.

Monday, December 21, 2009

 

Asril's blog week #12

Standardize Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

There was an initiative in PT Inco project organization to create a standard Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). It was initiated due to the fact that the current work breakdown structure is depending on the project manager style as they using their own standard. Subsequently, the cost estimate as one of the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) end product is also depending on the project manager style creating inconsistency cost estimate produce by the estimator. It’s also creating difficulties to have comparable by line item for us as the owner to evaluate the bids and others ineffective & inefficiency things during managing the project scope and estimating. For any new project, we do have to create a template of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) project or rely on template from other similar project and modify those templates to fit with the new project. However, its sometimes lead the laziness of the project team to determine the important things that usually forgotten during Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) development i.e. testing & commissioning, project management & administration, quality assurance review, configuration management, documentation and training & development.

The purpose for standardize the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) therefore to create the common standard Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) that can be implemented for all projects and we are not necessary to reinvented the wheel anytime we create the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) for the new project. Besides, project cost estimate will consistently using the similar scope definition so at the end, we will have the historical scope definition and cost estimate to be used for future scope definition and cost estimation. We can also can manage the comparable item to evaluate the bid.

The work for standardize Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is being progress and in the stage of completion the standard activity definition to determine the standard work element where we using WinEst database and starting from construction type of work. The activity definition is the process to identify and determine the most common construction activity for work discipline, mechanical, civil, electrical and instrumentation. This activity based on the current PT Inco project organization structure where all of disciplines usually produce their own scope definition. This is also supported by the fact the project in PT Inco is not always involving all discipline i.e. instrumentation type of project, usually not involving mechanical work. If I’m looking at Humphreys & associates chapter 2, Definition of Scope and Work Breakdown Structure page 39, I can see that our standardize of Work Breakdown Structure following the a bit of theory product based-oriented but I think close to the phase-oriented. The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) template produced so far as picture below (1 page only from 8 pages activity, sorry for unclear view).

Picture 1. PT Inco Standard Template Work Breakdown Structure

The level of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is determined by the team and it is agreed to have up to work element level at the WinEst database. However, decomposition of the activities stops when the team is comfortable can manage and control the work. Work in progress and still continue to develop other common activities to be included in. The complete standard Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) for PT Inco organization would be presented in the next blog.

Note: I complete my weekly blog early for this week to allow me work on busy week for year end closing

Sorowako, December 21, 2009


Cited:
1 PT Inco Central Engineering Standard Work Breakdown Structure, Author by Muhammad Asril
2 Humphreys & Associates, Chapter 2, Definition of Scope (Work Breakdown Structures) and Work Breakdown Structure Dictionary page 29-40

Sunday, December 20, 2009

 

Blog #9 from Lau

Learning from estimates
This chapter provides an insight into estimating project cost where there are unrealistically cost/price estimation offer in order to win or justify a project but eventually end up with additional cost and time incurred while in actual implementation. This is a serious issue faced particularly by the contractor in the real business world where "over ambitious" price have been offered to the customer in order to win contracts and eventually/ultimately creating a lose-lose-lose-lose situation where the customer have to incur more time and cost to re-negotiate the contract or to issue VO for the contract. For the contractors which offer higher price, with estimation done with high level of details and professionalism, will soon be running out of contracts to survive. This lead to unhealthy development and competition for an industry, unfortunately this is happening in the real business world. This chapter may help to appropriate, professional and practical answers for PM to deal with the challenges arise from estimation and competition. PM need to put the learning in practice so that answers to poor or "feel good" estimation can be provided automatically to deal with risk or trap arise from poor estimation.

Lose-lose-lose-lose situation is in opposed to win-win situation. Whereby contractor lose, competitor lose, customer lose and also end customer lose due to unprofessional estimation that leading to price war.


What is an estimate?
Estimates mean anticipating cost that reflects a scope of work performed within a specified time frame with defined assumptions. The larger and more complex a project is, more assumptions needed to define the estimate conditions. The estimate is often the input to decide the go/no go decisions on whether to proceed with a project. However, timely delivery of an accurate estimate is equally important; a late estimate is equal to an inaccurate estimate.


Estimating and its impact
Every project starts with an estimate. In fact, the outcome from the estimation could serve as important factor in making project decision. For contractor, winning an external project with low offer price (price estimation), will entail unforeseen problem later that results from the decision made with wrong or "over ambitious" estimation which often seen in real business world. The down side is that the owner may have to incur more cost and time with the awarded contract due to the difficulties faced by the contractor while delivering the project due to the "over ambitious" estimate. On the other hand, the contractors that provide an estimation which is far too high with or due to its setup and internal cost will soon be out of business. This will eventually causing the contractors who can provide quality work, soon to be out of competition from unethical price slashing with wrong estimation. In a fixed price environment, this can be a threat where there is no space for further negotiation on contract price of the initial contract awarded was based on wrong or poor estimation. Ultimately, poor estimation will pay the price of failing the business.


Process of estimation
- Estimation needs to be done based on set of guidelines such as projecting handbook and internal business guideline and policies as well as past project report and results that provide the framework for estimating process.
- WBS is needed to estimate the initial cost as well as update estimating data.
- WBS dictionary to define the boundaries of the scope for each element so that cost can be estimated and reported correctly.
- Standard format should be defined to facilitate for highly reporting as well as detail analysis.

WBS, templates, templates structure and templates formats are the essential and fundamental and basis for cost estimation and subsequent cost collection as well as interrelationship between various account levels and comparisons as well as user interface, data maintenance and consistency for traceability and analysis on changes.

The WBS and templates are the framework for all the cost estimating and should also be the basis for all subsequent cost collection. If the same structure does not support estimate development and actual cost collection, then it will never be possible to confirm that the estimated costs were accurate.

As mentioned earlier, estimation serves the fundamental and important for an organization for its business success and failure within the stipulated business guidelines and policies of an organization. All these need substantial practice carry out by the cost estimator to ensure fundamental such as WBS, templates and reference guiding policies as well as past histories are built and available for success estimation.



[Reference: Chapter 21, The Estimating Process, Project Management Using Earned Value]

Saturday, December 19, 2009

 

Thao’s blog #.9

Thinking about our Doctor's questions in my last blog posting, I find out that I'm more and more interested in the topic related to WBS development. Actually, WBS development is a big topic to study about but for my ~ 2500-word paper I'm just intending to explore on how to have healthy cost estimating in WBS level then activity level which is currently a hot topic in my real life project/organization. The following is my general outline for what I am going to study about in the coming days. 1. WBS development tools
Introducing Cocoon II, Delphi
2. Planning cost
Common activity groups in a turn-key telecom project: + man-hour cost/+ service cost/+ material cost
Tools and techniques to have the best cost estimating for these activities
3 Risk contingencies cost should be built in WBS? What should be the first choice for estimating cost in a turn-key telecom project.
Based on these key points I'm going to propose a change request for my topic as "Using Cocomo II in planning cost for the turn-key telecom projects"
The general outline for this proposed topic is as follows
- Cocomo II introduction (definition, sample diagram)
- Detailed plan for a turn-key telecom project (the common activity group, techniques to calculate cost for each activity group, the real life example)
- Risk contingency cost (where should the cost included? WBS level or activity level)
- Comparison with other techniques in estimating cost
That's all I intend to put in ~ 2500-word paper. Hope it is not so wide or narrow :D
Actually, I'm still quite confused with this outline. Maybe I should need more time to work in details and can give out the more appropriate one.
P/S: [Dear Mentor] I know the blog should not be a place for outline review for my paper but this is what I all thought about the whole week. In addition, I'm currently working with cost analysis in my real life project so I'm trying to find a topic that related to what I am doing now and what is more focused by management in my organization. Could you give me some ideas on the proper topics that I can write within 2500-word paper. (Surely, a Change Request for topic change will be submitted to you once I find a proper topic for me to proceed...I will have 10-day vacation to catch up with AACE in the year-end week :D "ten ten"

 

Book Log Week #11 - Learning is Patience

This is my book log writting for AACE Certification Transformer in week #11. In this blog I write off my lesson learnt from AACE and my implementation to my work. Some good and some bad. Recently I face the bad time of this journey. Why? My senior did not use my skill from this course, yet they used guessing game for estimating to a project. While I have done my estimation using from recorded data, reflected using burgerconomics from that time of year and to current time. And funny thing which I used it as a personal satisfaction, that the final sum is 5% different with my calculation.


I understand that in order to change the system or change for good it will takes time. Patience is always my principle in order to show my seniors in my department that I am bringing a good order to this department.


Another event occured happened this week was, I noticed that my organization are always need third party (consultant) to back up internal analysis report. According to my coleagues this practice is happen for years. No wonder that my Estimate To Completion or my cost forecasting is cannot utilise properly. I am new in this organization and I know I could bring change. So to achieve my certification is my higher stake to take as they do not need RoTI.

Same happen to our lost due to foreign exchange fluctuation, no body seems to concern, no mitigation plan to prevent this thing happened again. While me as an engineering to me cost concern is mandatory. I think how to prevent something that will happen. Forex fluctuation is a known situation. We should not hold on to certain number because what Central Bank conclude. History is always repeated it self. And if we collect forex data exchange we could know the fluctuation and make a limit bar for maximum and minimun rate that we could bare. But NO, I could only blame the supplier who did not give us the quotation and makes us "forget" about the forex exchange that decreasing significantly in front of our eyes. 21% of our lost due to forex exchange is really ashamfull.

Lesson learnt from here is, I should have only dependent on my self as a project supervisor and as project team controller. I should have know this would coming. If there any forex drop or raise, I should have inform to contractor to provide me invoice progress ASAP. Thanks to Earn Value Management System which the old me (save the organization money and thinking to invest the money first to earn more interest) has change completely. Other company has a different system and for now, I learn new rule and I will support this rule and have to prevent more losts.

Learning is patience. Time is our teacher. I know in life is just a phase that I need to go through and share the experience so I could study and learn in the future from my past. This blog is one of the kit for me to keep on studying.

Regarding to TRANSFORMER project assignments. I am still writting to my paper assignment and want to find IDENTIFYING PROBLEM as my first chapter.

Have a wonderful holiday season for you all, my dearest team members.






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Blog#10 - Farid Maloni - Why Net 30 days, prompt payment?

Since I was absent from my last week blog due to family relocation to Jakarta, I am hoping this week is my week back to the AACE course. But the relocation is not as smooth as I thought before, the know un-know happen. My car relocation delayed, cable TV trouble, several corner of the house need to finalized, the air cond need services, etc… and so on and so on. Like a normal project, my relocation project has a commitment problem from my contractor which requires a “crash” program to bring it back to the track.
Today I want to share my curios about 30 days payment term. I ever download an article about “Net 30 payment” a couple weeks ago for my paper needs. Still mix up in my head on how to correlate on Syariah /and finance Syariah, EVM, usury, and possibly a prompt payment will connected too.
A questions I have about “payment” long time ago (and still my question until today) is why every contract standardizes for company I ever work, always have their GTC (clausal for payment), mention the payment will proceed 30-45 days after invoices received (or good/services received or completed). I also ever have experiences a supplier decline from the list because not agree to the payment term.
Why is should be 30/45 days? Is that purely because of administration obstacle, or is regulated by accounting general practice?
I try to seek an answer at Google engine and this is what I get from as follow:
Net 30 is a form of trade credit which specifies that the net amount (the total outstanding on the invoice) is expected to be payment received in full 30 days after the Goods are dispatched by the seller, or 30 days after the Service is completed. Net 30 is a term that most business and municipalities (federal, state and local) use. Legally speaking Net 30 means that buyer will pay seller in full on or before the 30th calendar day (including weekends and holidays) of when the Goods were dispatched by the Seller or the Services were fully provided. Transit time is included when counting the days, i.e. a purchase in transit for 7 days before. In addition, Net 30 terms are often coupled with a credit for early payment (probably this is cost plus fee?); e.g. the notation "2% 10, net 30" indicates that a 2% discount can be taken by the buyer only if payment is received in full within 10 days of the dispatch of the goods, and that full payment is expected within 30 days. For example, if "$1000 2/10 net 30" is written on a bill, the buyer can take a 2% discount ($1000 x .02 = $20) and make a payment of $980 within 10 days. Net 30 payment terms typically have an interest penalty for not meeting these terms and they begin accruing on the 31st day after dispatch (1)
Reading above explanation, this is the real condition where practically happen in the company. The payment proceeds by company 30 days after the good received or services completed by the contractor.
Compare to experience I have deal with the contractor on Inco site, after the progress claim approved by company, the contractor sent the copy of approved progress claim to their Jakarta offices, then their jakarta offices submit the invoices back to Inco’s sorowako. This is sometime not run very smooths but ‘cause mostly from contractor side, since their take excessive time to prepare invoices and to sent back to us/company. When the invoices received by company’, then the invoices it will get stamp’s “received“by company finance dept; then from it the day was count. The invoices will go around back to the project department to get final approval prior to final payment.
Experiencing, the total days from progress claim approved by company to the payment sent to contractor bank account vary from 25 – 60 days. I can imagine how it will influence the contractor cash flow; and also how the interest will play it roles for the contractor. The longer the payment, the higher interest will be.
Above condition just happen every day and people will think this is a normal way to proceed payment, but until now I could not get the answer “why it should be 30 days?” in the contract term.
In this blog I invite any opinion and I hope Pak Paul (as a Mentor) could give me direction on this.
B/R, Farid Maloni

Cited from (1);http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_30

 

Nui – 11th blog

What I’m learning and Apply to Work

This week I reading Humphrey Chapter 27, Tracking the Estimate, and Compare to my real work.

Objective of Tracking Estimate is to justify the variance and understand it to prepare more accurate estimate in the future (Cited from Project Management Using Earned Value, Humphrey & Associates, p. 555). And to improve accuracy over time – continuing feedback of actual costs consistent with the estimated costs, allowing estimating standards to be revised when necessary. (Cited from Project Management Using Earned Value, Humphrey & Associates, p. 559)

I would say that my organization had realized this advantage and start implemented this idea around last year. And I am the one who prepare the report to compare plan versus actual and feedback to estimated team. But I think this is just start because I have not seen that the estimated team fully utilizes this information in such the way to improve estimating standards in order to guide each individual person to estimate in the same way/assumption.

From our organization point of view, this kind of report is considered in term of Historical and Vertical traceability which able to accurately summarize data with no exclusions, no doubtable counting, and correct summation totals. (Cited from Project Management Using Earned Value, Humphrey & Associates, p. 559)

When I looking through Figure 27.4 in Project Management Using Earned Value, Humphrey & Associates, p. 560. I realize that my report is few values to the estimated team. I did only comparison of plan and actual for each implementation site by separate each type of resource.


What I could do to add more value to my report are

But one more thing that I would refuse to do is tracking the changes of schedule changes, estimate refinement. Because when schedule and revisions (revised productivity values, quantity variations, invalid estimate assumption) change is hard to split the cost in term of recording into the cost account. If it is necessary, I think project manager is required to analyze the data and judge it from their project information rather than keeping record separately which could confuse the resource to book to cost and also increase maintenance work.

Finally, I would like to thank you to Dr.Paul again. From what you ask me to write what I have learned and apply to work in the blog every week. Because I have to push myself to think more and more how I use what I learn apply to my real work. Since my young learning experiences, I never practice like this before which it is the most worthy part of the entire learning.


 

LEARNING ON RP AACE - GENERAL PRINCIPLES OF CONTINGENCY ESTIMATING

Week#11 – Andy’s Blog


Reading on recent four papers/articles of AACE on General Principles and Risk Estimating Methods download from the Web Site introduce me in different terminology and approached on risk analysis methods compared with the Humphreys book which is currently used for my research on the risk assessment. I thinks it’s good to obtain deep understanding of the articles that could implement on the current practice of risk analysis and to compare whether any relationship between two different term and approach of risk analysis between Humphreys and the articles in manner to fulfill my research on the risk assessment.

The four articles are actually Recommended Practice (RP) of AACE international to provide guidelines for contingency estimating that they would recommend be considered for use where applicable. The articles are titled :

  1. Contingency Estimating – General Principles
  2. Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination using Range Estimating
  3. Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination using Expected Value
  4. Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination using Parametric Estimating


As it may quite wide range topic for this week blog, while I just limit and summary the topic on general principles of contingency estimating in this week blog report then the rest overview will be written and overview next week.

General Principles of Contingency Estimating

Any methodology developed for quantifying risk impact should address general principles :

There are some classes methodology of risk analysis, as summarize below, i.e. :

Expert Judgment , means that the judgment must have a strong basis in experience and competency in risk management and analysis. This method is highly subject to imposing iatrogenic risk when the judgment is inconsistent or biased which can be minimized by obtaining the consensus of multiple experts or experience team.

Predetermined Guideline (with varying degrees of judgment and empiricism used), This method is simple, understandable and consistent and as such, it is easy to get management buy –in and often used by inexperienced people. The methods for use on all estimates of a certain type to complex tables or scoring mechanisms that employ elements of parametric modeling. A disadvantage is that it can not effectively address risks that are unique to a specific project or risk that are common but may have inordinate impacts on a given project.

Simulation Analysis, This method combines expert judgment with an analytical model that is used in a simulation routine to provide probabilistic output that is facilitates the analyst’s and teams experience and input, which is particularly well suited for project specific risk. A disadvantage is the method’s complexity which requires expertise in application, the outcomes are not highly consistent dependent on the analyst and team input, and more challenging to apply effectively for systematic risks. The simulation analysis most common methods in use are Range estimating and Expected Value ; both of which use Monte Carlo or similar simulation routine and also Parametric Modeling

Hybrid methods that combine several or all of the above classes. .

Here is table summary of relationship between the general principles and the classes of risk methods



I will be on leave next week and may not work on blog report. Wishing you and your family happiness in Christmas time and coming in New Year.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

 

Asril's Blog Week#11

Forecasting

I would like to share what PT Inco project organization performing with capital project forecasting compare with Total Cost Management Framework forecasting theory, input, tools & technique and the output. Capital forecasting from PT Inco project organization perspective is performing evaluation to the project control plan in consideration to the current project performance. The assessment and evaluation is performed into the cost, schedule, scope and resources, but mainly into the costs and the timing of the forecasts by monthly basis right after PT Inco monthly financial closing date.

The forecasting process using the actual monthly expenditure as the basis to measure for any deviation to the cost plus committed cost and the remaining work to be done and we called it, Estimate Cost to completion. We obviously did not measure the earned value of the project as we using the accounting cost as the basis of forecasting. Accounting department provide monthly cost report automatic run through ellipse system and update into the Business Object report and in reality, these costs will not directly related to the physical progress to the project. The physical progress and schedule will then be assessed differently. Typical PT Inco Business Object report as picture below1:

Figure 1. PT Inco Project Budget Report

Once these report updated in the monthly basis, the project manager will then starting to perform capital cost forecasting by calculation of the actual cost, committed cost and cost estimate for work remaining. The actual cost is depend on the timing of contractor invoicing submission to the accounting department plus 45-days to have the actual payment according to PT Inco accounting policy. Therefore, the actual cost is definitely will not reflecting anything about the actual progress of the project. This kind of forecasting methodology is the status quo tools using for project forecasting till today.

Now, According to the Total Cost Management Framework, forecasting is the process of evaluation project control plans and control baseline in consideration of assessment on going project performance2. Project performance obviously project earned value which is determining accurate project status measurement, despite the actual cost based on accounting report. The objective of forecasting is to support the identification of efficient means, with acceptable risks, for the project to achieve its objectives when past and/or current performance is at variance with baseline plans. The second objective its opportunities to improve future performance are evaluated, even performance conforms to baseline plans. Finally, forecasting incorporates the results of the evaluation performance data and opportunities into control plans by communicating the forecasted cost, schedule and resources to complete the project or achieve specific milestone.

The forecasting is used to assess each applicable element of the project control plan i.e. scope, schedule, budget resources and risks, that is affected by a deviation, trend, change request, or opportunity. The input to the process include plans, performance and progress assessment, and change management information.

Figure 2. Process Map for Forecasting

Figure above illustrate the process map of forecasting. The forecasting process applies the project control planning processes in the context of a project progress. Tools and technique in the forecasting process is a combination of the analyzing the plan, analyze risk and contingency and driving by project performance assessment through earned value management. The forecasting outputs are:
1. Project control plans, are considered in overall project control planning
2. Planning information
3. Corrective action
4. Alternative forecasts
5. Project control basis
6. Historical information

I’m personally realized that the current PT Inco project forecasting tools is still way out of the forecasting technique supposed to be. Utilizing the accounting report cost as forecasting basis will not give a comprehensive project evaluation and assessment in order to make any decision to the project. However, changing the status quo will need a huge effort with regard to the existing system, cost and changing behavior. Can I make it?

Sorowako, December 15th, 2009

1 PT Inco PTI-boprd, Business Object reporting system, author. PT Inco IT Department
2 Total Cost Management Framework, Chapter 10.2 Forecasting, Page 209-210

Saturday, December 12, 2009

 

Thao’s blog #.8

WBS

So surprisingly, our blog page is visible to the world and my previous posting on "the estimate process" was one of the blog entries viewed and commented by a leading name in the world of on-line project management, Josh Nankivel, at http://pmstudent.com/. Hopefully, Transformers can make the best use of the blogging time as one of preparation pages for selling your self in the PM market. Visiting http://pmstudent.com/ and reading Josh Nankivel's paper on the "Top 7 WBS Mistakes Project Managers Make" also bring me passion to study more intensively on "the estimating process" in connection with WBS development.

* Estimate development
Cited from Humphreys, chapter 23, Estimate development, the estimate development is so specific based on what is being estimated. So talking about estimate development means that we are talking about the factors in the development process of which the estimate process is a part.
+ The estimating process
In this week entry "the estimate process" is more on details of components and ways to do for processes that I've mentioned in the previous post.
1. Project Definition (Scope) - The starting point of any estimate is a description of the project. Or in other words, before making a plan or estimate for any project a clear scope or definition of the project should be specified clearly. A good estimate starts with a good and clear understanding on the project scope, what should be done or fulfilled in a time frame to reach the set target.
2. Contracting Strategy - A basic understanding of how the work is going to be accomplished contractrually is neccessary.
3. Quantities Estimates - this kind of estimate is often based on the similar project experience to quantify the work to be done because there may be a little project that provide the estimate development in the early stage.
4. Labor Installation Rates (Hours) - Normally this type of data is available in the company's commercia database where type of works is listed and rated.
5. Apply hourly rates - the hour estimate shoud be converted to dollars
6. Material and Equipment Cost - The quantity being produced or the service being ordered are directly used to calculate the material and equipment cost.
7. Estimate indirect cost
8. Calculate labor esclation
9. Calculate material and equipment escalation
10. Calculate escalation on indirects
11. Perform cost risk assessment
12. Develop recommended contingency
13. Team review of estimate
14. Estimate approval
In establishing a WBS each of activity including in the WBS should have the above 14 factor reviewed. The 14 factors in the estimate process are a very good referential source for those projec managers who would like to thrive for cost estimate success. Without the understanding each of above factors PM may fail to reach the successful estimation at the end of the day.

 

Chris Blog #10, heading forward and hanging tough

Greeting all,
It is #10 of TRANSFORMER journey to AACE certification. This week was full of lesson learnt that I get. Sure it is a good learning education for me, but it is also confusing because I have to related to the process or chapters in book references that I have. Once you have lots of books that you read, you may forget from where you got the idea, nevertheless just like I always said this journey full of ups and down.

Me as a project man in my department is trying to do all the multi tasking that my superior asked me to. Once I have to act as drafter and in term of five minutes I become cost-budget control and estimator who is plan and create cost budget for up coming financial year, I use from previous historical data and follow it to find Big Mac Index (Burgerconomics) for the year and related to current year. From there I can see the PPP reflection and I did perform the information to my superior, which I hope he understand my mind process flows . In two hour after that I have to become project supervisor who concern for actual progress who analyse with Earn Value Analysis in order to provide good comment for my weekly project meeting.

After few hours I have to run the risk managing plan for upcoming holiday season which is for me, when the rest community take a brake, my department take the gas pedal to add speed for our December Break works. I love my present job because I could be anything so I could sharpen my skills for every task in project management. If related to PMBOK, my related job is covers all 9 process.

For background information, my department is already ISO certified for Quality Control Management and on February we might have an external audit to follow up the last session audit that have non-conformance finding according to ISO standard. For Project Team, I am the process owner and I have 2 minor founding. One of it is there are no Quality Matrix as a minimum requirement for contractor. I invited the consultant to discuss about this. At first they perform the presentation about general thing, too general and for me is so confusing.

During the discussion I proposed to use CSI-Master Format as our WBS check-list so we can see through each section accordingly. To am I surprised for my self, it is a good decision to run CSI-Master Format as a check-list. Everybody likes it. I quite pleased with my self and wonders how much this AACE certification process has change my point of view significantly. Better yet, I am also educate my colleagues (even my consultant) how to see a process from its WBS as a check-list.

And how I could create a cost estimate from previous recorded data and refers it to Burgerconomics as a reflection price increase to current time which is a breakthrough for me, as I am aware right now from 2004 to 2009, USA inflation is 27%. I use USA as my reflection is because I prefer to set the baseline in US$ as my organization is using lots of imported material from US as well as because of our financial standard using US$ as well.

Related to my act role in TRANSFORMER, I have sketch down every ideas that I want to write in my paper, like a run down so my paper is creating a smooth transitions paragraph to paragraphs. I have been working 15 hours a day since day one I set my self to achieve this certification. I am the last one is going home and the first to show up every day, even saturday and I try not for sunday, because it might make one of my stakeholders furious, if you know what I mean :D

My deepest concern is number of tourists that gain every week, which is for me is very contra productive if we see from personal goals. Because in this team we do not have authority to each other, different not like in our daily work. Why contra productive? Because we did not get materially value with our efforts but we will get paid by personal satisfaction which is for me is more challenging. While for our daily work we get paid but does it also can be valued with our personal satisfaction of what we have achieved, there are numerous decisions that are not satisfactory to our perspective and yet we still get paid. Just like MasterCard slogan, "There are some things that Money can't buy, for everything else there's MasterCard".


 

Still Working on Schedule Risk Assessment

Week#10 – Andy’s Blog

The schedule risk assessment are consisted on two analysis from the critical path and the highest risk path (ref. Humphrey’s books on Chapter 19 , “Schedule Risk Assessment”). The steps involved in assessing the risk of a schedule are as follows :
  1. Create CPM/PDM network
  2. Develop activity duration estimates
  3. Calculate a duration distribution for activities
  4. Compute the path distribution
  5. Evaluate the results include estimated completion contingency and identify high risk paths
  6. Initiate status monitoring

Critical Path Method Analysis

The analysis of CPM identifies the critical path at a line of activities where is tightly managed and the probability is high that an overrun, if any , would not exceed one month, i.e. :

From early start of project site preparation ==> clean up quarry ==> sub base construction ==> Load-haul overburden and ore ==> Base construction ==> finish (commissioning).

Two of the critical path activities are included in the longest duration activities, that are load- haul overburden and ore (84 days) and sub base construction (49 days). However, PDM shows there are 4 activities are required to be considered on the schedule risk analysis that they have an circle interconnection and have dependent of relationship each others i.e. :




CPM and Time-Phased Diagrams


Schedule risk assessment include estimating the likelihood of overrunning the baseline schedule and identifying paths that are potential problem areas. With CPM, the critical path is identified and with risk analysis, the distribution of the various paths at the end of the project can be compared explicitly. CPM is just the beginning of a complete schedule risk analysis and does not explore the likelihood of other durations occurring where the highest risk path are generally identified at long duration and risky, but may not be the critical path


Highest Risk Path Analysis using PERT

The highest risk path can be identified by comparing path distribution’s S-curves to see which has the longest potential duration. Again, a risk analysis does not accept the duration estimates as accurate. Path durations are distributions. S-curve is to tell how likely it is overrun or under run a particular estimated duration. The S-curve posing the greatest risk to the scheduled finish date identifies the highest risk path. The amount of risk in the CPM estimate depends on the shape of the S-curve and its position relative to the other curves.

There are three different approaches that have been used to assess the risk in all schedule which includes the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Monte Carlo simulation and Analytical Approximation. PERT was used to forecast probabilities associated with project duration and cost. PERT was intended to determine the mean and standard deviation of the completion time of the project. As kind of projects are particularly risky because little or no historical data are available, In practice, we need to quantify the risk factors using expert judgment when data are not available.




The duration of activity as per mentioned in the table above is based on equipments calculation model using parameter from historical data, that are included historical of physical availability (PA) of each equipments, circle time (loading, hauling, maneuver and dumping time) and handbook of equipments specification. The hauling distance of uncertainty overburden disposal locations is adopted by the most reliable of the longest available disposal location.
Using assumption by normal distribution, the cumulative likelihood S curve against possible path durations as shown figure below.

This is indicated in above Figure that there are 4 activities have more gradual shape of S-curve show the high of risk path and three of them are located in the critical path i.e. : drilling and blasting, sub base construction, load-haul overburden and ore but they are still located toward the left of the graph. However, the activity of bench sloping and clean up ore is not critical path but it is near critical as the curve toward the right of the graph and risky gradually sloped S-curve. Considering all of the factors, activity of bench sloping and clean up ore is called the highest risk path. It is explained that as the overall high of bench slope is 20 meter and required to cut batter the slope to allow the loading equipment working with maximum 10 meter bench high affect that the productivity of main loading equipment will be depended by small excavators and dozers which work to cut batter slope and the bench to feed the main loading equipment. Other, whenever ore layer exposed, the top of ore layer is required to clean up by small excavator prior mining the ore to minimize dilution of ore grade during mining. As 20 meter width box cut of design road is excatly the minimum mining width to allow heavy equipments safely work at the loading point, the ore expose defined in the road section should be cleaned up and mined for continuing of construction the next road sections. When there is a delayed on the small excavator to clean up the ore and cut batter of slope will affect the loading and hauling equipments is unable to continue (loading and hauling equipments standby) and result the clean up ore and sloping the bench activity will be on the critical path.
Well, It seems the picture of schedule risk assessment is going to appear what is the highest risk activtiy path of the project. I believe the analysis will be completed by comparison with Monte Carlo simulation using Palisade software @5.5 industrial for excel download from internet.


Friday, December 11, 2009

 

Blog #8 from Lau

Learning – Schedule Risk Assessment
Project management using earned value by Humphreys and Associates provides an insight into practical project management which is useful in practice. I was reading chapter 19 to deal with the question that assigned to me, the chapter can help me to deal with unrealistic request for delivery schedule and also provide an answer to the request what would be the probable schedule risk with various method that provided in the chapter and so that contingencies can be planned for the risk event if it takes place. However not all the methods are perfect, PM need to recognize the advantages and disadvantages and also potential discrepancies arise with different method used.

Schedule risk is part of an overall risk assessment and exists in every project as well as daily activities. Failing to recognize and consider this risk will be causing cost and schedule overrun. Highly critical path does not mean that the risk is high. CPM will be able to help to recognize the path with longest duration and least total float, however risk analysis provide information that CPM unable to detect. Critical path may attract management attention however highest risk path has a good chance of overrunning. Results can be serious when the impacts of high schedule risk paths are ignored. In addition to incentive payments may be lost, additional costs may be incurred in the rush at the end of the project to accelerate efforts in an attempt to meet the completion date.

The fact is that even standard projects are risky and one-of-a-kind or first-of-a-kind projects (customized IT or software projects) are particularly risky because:
- Technology may be unproven
- Design readiness is more difficult to achieve - unanticipated problems may occur with no ready solutions.
- Little or no historical data are available
- Objectives or scope may be redefined middle of the project
- Contractors, supplier and labor are more unfamiliar with what is required to get the job done.

Schedule risk assessment involves a number of goals that including estimating the likelihood of overrunning the baseline schedule and identifying paths that are potential problems area so that they can receive increased management attention and provides early warning of threats to the schedule.
Those responsible for a risk assessment should adhere to standards of honesty and provide unbiased estimates. However, due to strategic reasons, very often schedule risks are disregarded. Even with a well-disciplined risk analysis, management may make bad decisions with good information.

Risk of a schedule overrun is driven by, any factors, known and unknown factors, we need to quantify these factors, expert judgment is needed to quantify the risk when data are not available. Quantified risk assessment helps to allows decision made based on potential overrun that is clear and explicit, and provides as estimate of the contingency requirement to limit overrun risk to an acceptable level as well as early warning for special management attention so that extra resources can be allocated if necessary and also contingencies plan can be activated.

Very often as a contractor, due to competition and customer demand, directed dates project schedule and reducing duration to fit the schedule, happens in project bidding as well as implementation. Project manager and bidder have to be honest in dealing with such kind of situation and to provide the real picture and the extent of risk that could affect the project if we underestimated the damage caused by over ambitious bid that provide the “feel good” picture the project will be successful. This is a violation of scheduling process and a risk analysis can help to explore the situation and provide the workaround to the situation to negotiate internally and externally for the acceptable delivery schedule that can really help to ensure deliver the project successfully.

Methods shown as well as illustration in this chapter, such as CPM approach, cumulative likelihood curves (S-Curves) and its characteristics and considerations in relation to network design and characteristic as well as more advance method such as PERT approach, analytical approximation approach and Monte Carlo approach can be practically applied and provide an eye opener to project owner or project sponsor the impact if we failed to recognize or constantly ignoring the impact of the schedule risk.

CPM approach could help to provide a quick and rough idea on the risk probability and S-curves will be able to provide an illustration on how the schedule will be shifted or delay and its probability. Preferred method will be PERT or Monte-Carlo approach. However, PM needs to put the methods presented in Chapter 19 in practice to deal, instinctively and automatically, with issue arises from risk assessment and its potential impact.

[Reference: Chapter 19, Schedule Risk Assessment, Project Management Using Earned Value]


Thursday, December 10, 2009

 

Asril's Blog Wk #10

Capital Appropriation Request (CAR) Vs Work Authorization

Capital Appropriation Request (CAR) approval is the important gate in the project management process flow especially in PT Inco organization. The Capital Appropriation Request (CAR) is a document covering all of the project requirements. A capital appropriation represents a commitment of funds required to undertake a fixed asset investment. Once the planning process has been completed, the scope of work has been carefully defined and scheduled, budgets has been allocated, and performance methods has been identified, include assessment of the Health, Safety and Environmental, the Project Manager will then compile them into the Capital Appropriation Request (CAR).

Capital Appropriation Request (CAR) is the document to delegate the project responsibility to the Project Manager for accomplishing specific project tasks with associated budget and schedule. Formal signature however is required to indicate mutual agreement that the specific scope of work define within the authorizing document can be accomplished within define schedule and cost objective.

Capital Appropriation Request (CAR) actually is the ‘contract document’ between the project management organization lead by the Project Manager, Project Sponsor, Project Owner and executive management. The project can not be performed prior the CAR has been formally approved by formal signature through formal and electronic sign off and no expenditure should be committed without obtaining this approval. Looking at the life span management from owner perspective as picture 1, Capital Appropriation Request (CAR) gate approval exactly on the shareholder gate approval or final authorization where portfolio/asset manager and program/operation manager are rapidly decreasing their influence into the project and handed over the person responsibility for the accomplishment of project objectives, either a project manager or person acting in role of project manager.

Life Span Management R. Max Wideman’s “Project Management Framework”

Humphreys & Associates chapter 32, Establishing the Performance Measurement Baseline page 647-648, also state the work authorization requirement of the project. A project must be authorized before work can be performed and actual costs charged against the project. If it is an internally managed project, then the top level work authorization may be as simple as memorandum from executive management. This is exactly the same with PT Inco organization performing Capital Appropriation Request (CAR) as the work authorization to the project manager.

In some organizations, a project manager will issue work authorization documents to a functional manager, who will support the performance of a project. These documents are the vehicle of the project manager to delegate the responsibility for accomplishing specific project tasks, with associated budget and schedules, to these support organization. In PT Inco organization case, the functional manager is the contractor project manager.

The following items and information are needed for the work authorization:
1. Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) orientation
The WBS defined how the work is organized. Since it serves as the framework for the integration of all project management activities, it is an essential ingredient for a work order reference. WBS also becomes a compulsory for a CAR document.
2. Responsibility assignment from the Organization Breakdown Structure (OBS)
In PT Inco CAR document, Organization Breakdown Structure mentioned about the reporting line and who responsible for what.
3. Scope of work
Refer to the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), will allow visibility into the specific work being authorized.
4. Schedule assignment
The schedule is integrated with the scope of work to be performed.
5. Budget statement
When work is authorized, the associated budget for accomplishing that work must be known. This budget value must correspond the scope of work and schedule for completing the work. Budget on the CAR which has been approved should not be added without proper further approval.
6. Charge number assignment
In PT Inco organization, charge number called capital work order which is created by the project controller and correspond to the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS).
Once the project formally has been formally authorized, it requires a formal change order to modify the scope of work, the schedule and the budget.

What lesson that I can learn here that for the entire organization who deal with the project management, the work authorization is the key gate as the formal agreement for the top management to authorize the work according the scope, schedule and cost and these authorization is the contract document between the management with the person who responsible to manage the authorized project.

Cited:
1. Life Span Management R. Max Wideman’s “Project Management Framework”
2. Humphreys & Associates, Part 4 Earned Value, Chapter 32 Establishing the Performance Measurement Baseline, Page 647-678

Sunday, December 6, 2009

 

Blog#9 Farid Maloni – Project Management EVM: observed from Syariah Finance law (part 2)

I am continuing to search and read several articles by goggling on the net, for what I wrote in Blog#5 and how to define framework of my 2,500 word paper “EVM observed from Syariah law”. I am tried to define:
“Why I write on this topic?”
“What issue becomes the starting point?”
“What other topics will correlate with the paper?” and wondering;
“What the final conclusion related to EVM?

I start my reading with interesting presentation” Introducing to Islamic finance, Security and Sukuk”, by Amer Khalil Ur Rehman, AIMS-Academic for International Modern Studies UK.
I found interesting cited from website of AIMS wrote as follow:
“...Global potential of the Islamic banking market is conservatively estimated at $4,000bn, according to Moody's Investor Service. Current market is estimated at only $700bn, most of it in the Gulf. With such potential it becomes clearer why governments, eager to please their Muslim populace, are encouraging more banks to start up and expand outside domestic markets...” (1)
I found also in the presentation slide, that ABN Amro, Citibank, Deutsche bank, Hongkong & Shanghai banking Corp, Union Bank of Switzerland doing Islamic Banking for profit and market size since potential, and not (necessarily) for religious reasons. Profit during 80’s average 15%-20% p.a. and in 90’s onwards averaged 10%-15% p.a. return (1).
Booth cited above; and what I ever wrote in my Blog#5 probably could be answering “Why write in this topics”.

Then I continue to “What is the starting”.
One of special characters of Islamic/Syariah finance is prohibiting usury, interest, or riba. (PS: I will not discuss further in this blog, but what I read in the presentation (1), cited some epistle from Judaist and Christian with the same aims). Syariah is part Islamic which teach us on practice and activity; including practice on banking and financial activity.
In this point I will explain on “Riba”. If we talk on Islamic banking/ Finance law, we usually find Riba/usury prohibition. The very basic question” Why Riba/Interest/usury is prohibit in Islamic Syariah perspective?
Riba (Interest) is any return/reward or compensation charged on a loan contract as well as charged in rescheduling debts. Riba is strongly prohibited in Islam. The economic implication is that money is considered as a medium of exchange effectively created to be sought not in itself but for other commodities. Thus, charging interest on loans is considered unjust since money is considered to be simply an intermediary between goods. Recently scholars have also placed increased scrutiny on not only the rationale for the prohibition of interest but also on the lack of theory in support of interest. Mirakhor (1995) provides an overview of recent discussions concerning this theme. He refutes numerous arguments that lend support for the existence of interest as a backbone for conventional financial markets. It is maintained that when money is loaned, the funds are used to create either a debt (in which case there is no warrantable rationale why the lender should accept a return) or an asset (in which case there is no justifiable reason why an unconditional assurance of interest should be imposed by the market) (2)

Picture: Cited from (4)


Anyway, I realize still far away from “What the final conclusion related to EVM".
Recall the pictures I ever shown in blog#5 (see attached), and read on below of “Sukuk Istisna” definition as a contract whereby a manufacturer (or contractor) agrees to produce (or construct) and deliver, at a given price on a given date in the future, a well-described good (or building) according to specifications. In istisna the price need not be paid in advance. It may be paid in installments, similar to progress payment as agreed by the parties, or partly up front, with the balance being paid later”(3).
I think running Project management EVM (probably) applicable to Syariah finance law environment. It because the strength of Project management EVM (compare to Ordinary PM) is the “real time” monitoring on any project indicator (such as progress etc) and plays in helping to know and understand how “healthy” our projects are (5).

Those capability will satisfy the Istisna requirement above that”... In istisna the price need not be paid in advance. It may be paid in installments, similar to progress payment as agreed by the parties, or partly up front, with the balance being paid later”.

And then, IMPO, a prompt payment issue is crucial to the health of contractor who applying project management EVM, regarding to the tight margin provision in the high market competitiveness.

Let me finish my reading, researching, and seeking of any correlate issue within it,in order to complete the body of my paper.

B/R, Farid Maloni
PS: Pak Paul (as mentor), I will potentially cannot reach any net access within nextweek, 'cause I am on the way to relocate my family from mining site to Jakarta and set the new place, so, I almost sure cannot post any blogs nextweek. I hope you could understand the condition.Thanks

(1) http://www.learnislamicfinance.com/ ; Financial Times UK 'Jul 2008
(2) Managing Financial Risks of Sukuk Structure,- A dissertation, MSc, International Banking, Ali Arsalan Tariq,Loughborough University UK, 2004.
(3) “Islamic Financial Services Industry Development-Ten year framework and Strategy”,policy dialog paper no#1 ,IFSB -Islamic Financial Service Board, may 2007.
(4) Sukuk Al Istisna’a Scheme for Balongan Project- Case Study,Pertamina, September, 2006. www.alhudacibe.com/.../Sukuk/Sukuk%20al%20Istisna%20Case%20Study.pdf
(5) Paul D Giamalvo, email to aace-2009@googlegroups.com ,title: RE: [AACE-2009. 416] RE: EV PM vs conventional PM, Sent: Sat 11/28/2009 6:46 PM


Saturday, December 5, 2009

 

Thao’s blog week#.7

The estimating process

I don’t have much opportunity to apply what I am learning now in AACE in my daily tasks but to some extend learning AACE brings me an intensive point of view in project support tasks that I'm handling daily. Reading through my assignment this week with chapter 21 in Humphrey’s I am really interested in this chapter which helps me understand more on what is the key for being a successful project manager from the planning phase.

Here are some focused points for my review that cited from Humphrey’s, chapter 21, the estimating process.

Every project starts with estimating so the more accurate and detailed of the estimation is the more successful the project manager is. The below cited points (in italics) are the most important steps that every project manager should focus on when doing with the estimation to avoid the impact of poor estimating to the project.
1. A set of guidelines need to be in place. The guidelines provide the framework for the estimation process.
In many projects, the guideline are available, especially in a big company where they already have their developed standard work process. To start a project, any estimation has to comply with the standard process. And there’s also a supporting team to help project managers to fulfil and follow the standard process. Project manager should always refer to the set framework to do the estimation.
2. A structure must be established. This should be the project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). In many cases, the WBS used for actual cost collection
The WBS should be the basis to collect actual cost for all activity in the project. A WBS and templates serve cost esimating for the following reasons
+ To provide consistency betwen estimates and from there will helps project manager to compare the estimating with the actual collection later on.
+ To provide a summarization structure which guarantees vertical traceability from detailed accounts to summary accounts
+ To provide a basis for establishing standard estimate formats/templates.
In order to establish a successful cost estimation and control, a well-developed structure of WBS is a crucial factor.
3. WBS dictionary which define boundaries/scope of work
The WBS dictionary will be the basis for cost estimate.
4. Standard estimate format/template should be defined
All forms/templates should be consistent through the automatic summarization capability. The format should maintain through out the history of the project. This will be a tracker for tracing the changes in the estimates.
The estimate process plays an important role in making or breaking a project success. However, it only works when the above listed factors are in place.
In my real life world, the estimation process is well organized and aplied for all projects with set of procedures and standard provided by the organization. However, to ensure a proper cost estimation besides the estimate process as a basis for initiating the cost estimation, there should be further development and follow-up which we may study more in chapter 22, 23 in the Humphrey's, Estimate Development.

 

Nui – 9th blog

What I’m learning this week

What I would like to emphasize in my weekly blog is that how can I matching what I learn to my real working environment in the term of terminology, tool and process.

This week on mapping project, I have reviewed Risk Management for my peer. This is the topic under Chapter 7, Project Control Process.

Cited from TCM Framework under 7.6 Risk Management page 160.


The main processes consist of;

Reference from Ericsson Risk Management Hands-on Training material (ECT-09:001655Uen)
Risk Management process is,

Comparing Risk Management between TCM Framework and Ericsson Risk Management Process

However in practical, many project managers may start with good risk analysis but neglect or not continue with the monitoring and control of the risk. This will damage the total project and be worthless the risk analysis initiation at the beginning.

Eventually, I would like to summarize that the risk management process concept is good no matter what source it is, which provide the same purpose is to increase the probability that a planned asset or project outcome will occur without decreasing the value of the asset or project*. (cited from TCM Framework page 159). But the purpose will not be achieved if we do not work through to all sub process.

Next week, I plan for holiday which cannot access internet. So I will not submit my weekly blog.

Long Live The King Bhumibol Adulyadej


 

Book Log #9, Chrisma, Working with PLEASURE

Hi all.
This is my book log #9 for AACE Transformer team goals and objectives. This week I done multi tasking act. Right as my working experience and my Transformer role. Just like I said in my first blog entry, AACE certification is my goal and to achieve it really like a riding on a roller coaster, fulls of ups and downs that is good form my personal experience and lesson learnt. I usually have write this blog in my office for 8 consecutive weeks but this week my project was posponed their concrete pouring session therefore I do this blog input in my house but I overslept due to I tug my son to bed and complete together I tug my self in rest. ;)

Anyway, for this week related to my job, it seems that I have put new mark on my users head that I am the cost gate keeper of my organization's projects. I have been very strict with project cost and expenditure and not let it over budget. I am in stingy attitude and I think this role I have not been playing in my previous project before. I always runs project to over budget and this is quite shameful but my alibi is I was not the project manager back then. Now after I am planning to have CCC certification this role I have to play more often in order to raise my credibility in the eyes of my organization's.

My end users required one equipment that has 23 quantities with 7 different filter cartridges. One of the users was taking an easy choices by saying they need all 7 different filter cartridges for all 23 equipments. Me stood stand tall and call for big meeting to all parties, in the meeting finally we elaborate more about this issue. After I explain my background which is we have to split between project cost budget with operational and maintenance cost budget, and all of them accepting it. And now the final decision is we bought those 23 equipments which this is a mandatory as we are really need this equipment to fill the class, but the cartridge was not 23 no more but only 17. For me this is quite enormous breakthrough when I could stop the end "panic buying" mode to more reasonable vision, at least until the building can manage to operate first, we still could buy the cartridge on the later stage. At the end, the end users was thanked me for my ability to see more deep about cost saving. Overall the related parties was over joy because I could manage the important value of the project which is how to to get operate after project accomplished not to let over think how to maintain because maintain and operational cost has its own budget cost.


I tried to find what chapter this engineering economic paradigm of mine. Because when you have read a lot, you might do not know or forget from where you have this courage and or from what chapter of my mindsets. I realize that I have done the Engineering Economic Analysis Procedure and Chapter 6, Comparison and Selection among Alternatives.

This week I have done a lot and goes lot of places of meeting rooms. In order to clarify my running cost. Very fortunate that I have start writing my paper assignment and read GAO-09-3SP for reference. Chapter 16 in this GAO mentioned about Documenting the Estimate which I have done it in this week. In GAO there are checklist for the estimator how to creating high-quality cost estimate report. I follow the sections and finalize it. Big wish that this could arise my users (organization) aware that I have raise my personal quality.



Related to Transformer team, I am quite devastate to run a team that I do not have an authority to each other team member. This is really challenging situation because I could not reach them and get personally involve to help them to overcome their obstacle. Thank you to my mentor that keep me high spirit can teach me to see from positive perspective. I have plan for next week to create a polling to decide few maters that have been stuck for couples of weeks.


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Blog#7 from Lau

Teaming
I have revisited a book by the title of “Asian Values Western Dreams” by Greg Sheridan, a book written post 1997 Asian financial crisis on various debates, interviews and encounters by the writer with academic leaders, politicians and journalists in Asia on Asian values and Western dreams. The book was published in 1999, post financial crisis, when there were a series of change of leadership took place consequently in Asia and South East Asian countries. I bought this book when I was very much into leadership studies between 1999 and 2001 a period of post financial crisis where there were uncertainties and also period of in search of answers. I spent time to studies some of the characters and behaviors of the leaders both Western and Eastern leaders including corporate leaders, politicians as well as religion leaders if there is any similarity among them. In fact we all do have all the leadership qualities and behavior demonstrated by the successful leaders around us based on the vision and the value systems instilled in us. How we demonstrate that in our daily lives is very much depends on our upbringing, cultures, value and believes system and also how fast we can response to situation that we need to make decision objectively leading towards team or personal goal. Thanks to this AACE course, I started to do it again to go back to study desk to put in effort to learn both “soft” skill and “hard” skill (EE, HU, TCM and etc). There may be certain qualities or traits which are very significant among us, but there are still others that we need to practice in order to have all the characteristic and behavior instinctively perform according to the situation based on the fundamental value systems instill with us or believe we have. However value systems, which interrelated with our culture and upbringing, are often hindering the speed how we react and respond to change or we are just too polite to be confrontational not until the situation becomes critical.


TRANSFORMERS have since been formed for 2 months for a common goal as stated in the team agreement. After 2 months of teaming, it is time to looking at what we have achieved and to decide a way forward. By looking at the results (project report) received as of week 8, by having an overview on individual team member weighted SPI for 3 deliverables, without considering Control, (Mapping, 24%, Paper; 38% and Questions; 38%), we can see the team distribution as follows:




Figure: Transformers individual team member SPI - information based on WK 8 team report

Based on information we have, TRANSFORMERS is not fully operational as a performing team yet. If we divide the group according to the SPI range, this has resemblance to Tuckman’s model whereby there are group of team members that are performing, these group of people needs minimal interference or supervision from the leader. There is group that is norming and there are also team members (with SPI less than 0.5) that need much support, attention, coaching and direction to move forward. This team of people can seek for help from other team member as well as team leader (Project Manager, Program Manager and performing team) for support and coaching in order to improve the SPI for the particular group as well as TRANSFORMERS as a whole team. Or for worst case, we need to decide if we need to vote-out the under performance team member and redistribution the work across in order to forward as a renewed team. Justification of removing a team member can be based on engineering design and analysis process to determine if this alternative is viable to implement or not.


Note: The SPI data shown above is a reflection situation as of WK 8 and is not the ultimate performance indicator of the particular group or team member.


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